Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
