Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
